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HOW TO READ THE OPTIMIZER:

• The optimizer consists of each of the following items…
  • Site: PrizePicks or Underdog. Depending on which site you are playing on, you have the ability to filter by one or the other
  • Name: Self-explanatory, this is the player’s name
  • Team: This is the player the team is on. This is an important column to note when running game stacks as you can filter by specific teams at the filter in the top right of the table
  • Statistic: This refers to which statistic the optimizers are referring to
    • Example: In the screenshot above, Mikal Bridges o31.5 Points on Underdog was the top differential  play of the day
  • Line: This is what the player’s line on PrizePicks or Underdog is set to
  • Proj: This is the amount the optimizer is projecting the player to have
    • Example: Mikal Bridges is projected for 36.76 Points
  • Play the: This column tells you whether you should be playing the Higher/More or the Lower/Less
  • Diff: This is the difference between the player’s line and the optimizer projection

Threshold of Plays to Consider:

• This section is all about the Value column and how to distinguish what are good plays.
  • For points, a +/- 5 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- 2.5-4.99 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 2.5 should be considered a fade.
  • For rebounds, a +/- 2 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- 1-1.99 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 1 should be considered a fade.
  • For assists, a +/- 1.4 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- .7-1.4 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 2.5 should be considered a fade.
  • For rebounds + assists, a +/- 2.5 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- 1.25-2.49 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 1.25 should be considered a fade.
  • For points + rebounds, a +/- 6 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- 3-5.99 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 3 should be considered a fade.
  • For points + assists, a +/- 5.5 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- 2.75-5.49 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 2.75 should be considered a fade.
  • For points + rebounds + assists, a +/- 7 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- 3.5-6.99 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 3.5 should be considered a fade.
  • For fantasy points, a +/- 6 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- 3-5.99 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than 3 should be considered a fade.
  • For 3-pointers made, a +/- .65 difference or greater is the preferred target range for plays. Plays in the +/- .32-.64 range should be considered as leans and played at a lower volume. Anything lower than .32 should be considered a fade.
• Game stacks
  • The same criteria mentioned above should be considered when game stacking
  • Since game stacks are generally “long shots”, playing leans inside of them is perfectly fine
  • On Underdog, the preferred entry sizes are 3-pick standard or 5-pick (standard or insured)
    • If there happen to be exactly 4 players inside of a specific game on Underdog that fit the criteria, a 3-pick is the preferred method
  • On PrizePicks, the preferred entry sizes are 5-pick and 6-pick flexes
  • It is not recommended to do 3-pick entries on PrizePicks as the payout is only 5x whereas on Underdog it’s 6x

Other notes

• From what we have seen so far this season, Lower/Less plays are far more profitable than Higher/More plays. Take this into mind when selecting what you want to play from the optimizer. 
• Everything is color-coded in this based on the statistic. So a point projection that has a differential of 5 or higher is going to be a dark green. A 3 -pointers made projection that has a differential of -.65 or lower will be dark red. This is the same for every other stat we provide projections for as well. 
• The NBA Pick’em 1Q/1H Optimizer AND NBA Pick’em Rivals Optimizer stays with the same value model that we used previously where a value of 40 or higher is optimal and a value of 30 or higher is a lean. 

If you have any questions feel free to send me a DM on Discord or on Twitter/X.