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MLB Rundown for Friday, April 26th, 2024
Kansas City Royals -102 @ Detroit Tigers -116
Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo (R) vs. Reese Olson (R)
Temps in the high 50s / low 60s in Detroit with winds blowing in from left at 10 mph. Royals bats will face Reese Olson, who has had a solid start to his 2024 campaign. Reese was really solid to righties and had average numbers to lefties in 2023, but it seems that at least for now those concerns are not showing up. The walk rate to lefties is at least a little concerning, but against this Royals team it seems that most DFS interest is canceled out.
Seth Lugo will start for the Royals and face a Tigers team that is striking out at a 24% clip to righties this season. Lugo hasn’t recorded more than 4 strikeouts in a single start all year. I don’t mind looking at guys like Riley Green and Mark Canha, but I’m going to keep interest to a minimum in a game that just doesn’t have many ways to attack it for fantasy purposes.
Oakland Athletics +215 @ Baltimore Orioles -260
Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Ross Stripling (R) vs. Corbin Burnes (R)
Temps in the mid 60s with winds blowing right to left across the field. Corbin Burnes comes in as the insane home favorite and will face an A’s team that is striking out at a 27.5% clip this year to righties. Burnes’ reverse splits tendencies are back, but I don’t see too many righties in this Oakland lineup that are going to do well vs. righties outside of Brent Rooker, who also strikes out at a 45% clip to RHP this season. Burnes’ strikeout rate to lefties is way down on the year, but in this matchup, I’d expect that to get back on track. All of Corbin’s props are in play.
Ross Stripling on the other hand is about to get blown tf up today. The Orioles come in with the 3rd-highest implied total on the slate (4.8 runs). Gunnar Henderson has gone scorched Earth the last week and a half, hitting five home runs off of 18 hits in the last 10 games. Adley Rutschman has recorded multi-hit games in five of his last six. Baltimore bats should be near or at the forefront of offenses to be interested in playing today.
Los Angeles Dodgers -124 @ Toronto Blue Jays +105
Game Total: 9 | Starting Pitchers: Gavin Stone (R) vs. Chris Bassitt (R)
Gavin Stone has been “okay” through four starts for the Dodgers. His main struggles this year are coming from lefties, where his 19% walk rate is most of the reason for the 0.452 wOBA. Lucky for him, he’ll face a ton of righties in this Jays lineup, meaning that Stone could actually have a pretty solid outing. Daulton Varsho poses the biggest risk here and is certainly in play from a batter’s perspective.
Chris Bassitt is two things: really good to righties and really bad to lefties. Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, and Freddie Freeman are all solid bats to go to here. It is at least noteworthy that while the lefties are in really good situations, these three lefties specifically are 8/39 vs. Bassitt with three HRs given up.
Washington Nationals +112 @ Miami Marlins -132
Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams (R) vs. Anthony Maldonado (R)
Jesus Luzardo was scratched, which will place Anthony Maldonado as the starter in what looks to be a bullpen game for the Marlins. No interest in Nationals bats whatsoever in this situation. If you want to go to CJ Abrams that is fine, as he’s recorded at least one hit in 17/21 games this season.
The Marlins and their 4.6 implied run total (5th today) will face Trevor Williams, who has been above-average to start the year compared to his 2023 stats. Miami has a collective ISO of 0.102 vs. righties, which is bad – meaning something has got to give here. I don’t believe in Trevor Williams, but it’s hard to believe in this Marlins offense as well. Don’t mind going to a Bryan De La Cruz or Jazz Chisholm in this situation.
St. Louis Cardinals +110 @ New York Mets -130
Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas (R) vs. Jose Butto (R)
Temps in the low 50s with winds blowing out towards left at 10 mph – still a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Cardinals bats will face Jose Butto, who has been very solid for the last month. The walk rate of 25% here is concerning to lefties, but this is mostly coming from Butto walking 5 Dodgers in his last start, which seems like an outlier at least so far or at least you’d think. I’ll stay away from the Cardinals bats.
Mets bats will face Miles Mikolas on Friday evening, who will make sure that balls will be put in play with a sub-17% strikeout rate collectively. Mikolas has given up at least two runs in every start this year and five runs three times so far, so hopefully this wakes up a Mets team that collectively has an ISO of just 0.096 to righties. Starling Marte has recorded at least two bases in six of his last ten games. Slugger J.D. Martinez is expected to make his Mets debut tonight and could provide an extra offensive assurance.
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox -205
Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga (L) vs. Kutter Crawford (R)
Temps in the low 50s with winds blowing across the field right to left at Fenway at 10 mph. Cubs bats will take on Kutter Crawford, who has been pretty fantastic to begin the year. Crawford has recorded six strikeouts in four of his five starts this year and has yet to have an outing giving up more than one run. Without Bellinger in the lineup, this Cubs starting lineup loses quite a bit of pop – I’m good with staying away from the bats and loading up on Kutter props.
Shota Imanaga is finally fully stretched out – recording at least 90 pitches in his last two starts. He has been electric to start the year and will face a Boston team that strikes out at a 34.2% clip to lefties this season, an ASTOUNDINGLY BAD number. Shota strikeouts, pitching outs, and fantasy score options are all full-go.
Cleveland Guardians +172 @ Atlanta Braves -205
Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen (L) vs. Chris Sale (L)
Temps in the mid 70s here with winds blowing in from left at 10 mph. Chris Sale is the massive home favorite and will face a Guardians team that could pose an interesting test. While Sale has been amazing to begin the season with his new team (27% K% / 0.122 ISO / 48% ground ball rate), he’ll face the heart of this Guardians lineup that presents four bats with elite clips to left-handed pitching. Kwan, Tyler Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Josh Naylor are obliterating lefties while David Fry/Gabriel Arias are above-average bats to this handedness. I’m off of Sale (who is in play for large-field GPPs) and have a tiny sprinkle of interest in bats like J-Ram and Naylor.
The Braves come in with the card’s 2nd-highest implied team total of 5.1 runs. They’ll face Logan Allen, a southpaw who has been lit up a couple times with righties being the main issue. Acuna, Riley, Ozuna, Duvall, and d’Arnaud are elite bats to play, and so is Ozzie Albies if he returns to the lineup. Braves rank above the Orioles but it is very close – both offenses are great.
Tampa Bay Rays -250 @ Chicago White Sox +205
Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (R) vs. Chris Flexen (R)
One of the scariest rain spots on the card comes in one of the most insanely lopsided games on Friday night in Chicago. Zach Eflin is an amazing -250 favorite but it’s unclear if he’ll even be given the chance to go the distance in this situation given the bad weather. It’s so early in the day that it’s unclear how this is going to shape out, so I’ll go with the case he gets a full start (just know that there’s risk). With winds blowing in additionally from right at 15 mph minimum, there’s a real world that Eflin goes out there and dominates from start to finish. His strikeouts are down to start the season at 21.8%, but he’ll face five bats here that strike out at a 25% clip or higher.
Chris Flexen has been BAD to lefties this year, which is kind of strange considering that he historically does not handle righties well. Isaac Paredes and Amed Rosario are righties I can get behind while Richie Palacios is a pretty sneaky lefty that could take advantage of Flexen’s recent struggles.
Again – rain could just ruin this whole thing so keep an eye on this situation.
Cincinnati Reds +146 @ Texas Rangers -174
Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Graham Ashcraft (R) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (R)
Rangers have the highest-implied team total on the card at 5.2 runs. They’ll face Graham Ashcraft, who has now had two outings of at least 5 ER given up on his resume in 2024. Ashcraft has been worse to lefties to begin the season (0.238 ISO / o.375 wOBA / 51% hard contact). The one thing that is keeping Ashcraft alive is his 54% ground ball rate. Corey Seager, Nate Lowe, Evan Carter are one of the best trios of lefties available to play today, with Seager potentially being the best hitter on Friday’s card.
Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for the Rangers as a sizable favorite. While the strikeouts and struggles to righties exists here, the numbers to lefties are really solid. I am scared of Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnancion-Strand, but that’s pretty much it. Elly De La Cruz has recorded a stolen base in five of the last nine games.
New York Yankees -126 @ Milwaukee Brewers +108
Game Total: 8.5 | Starting Pitchers: Luis Gil (R) vs. Colin Rea (R)
Yankees will face Colin Rea, who has been surprisingly clutch to start the year. He’s not really a strikeout arm and the struggles to righties this year are pretty glaring. Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton are solid righties in this matchup. Dating back to 2023 Rea was much worse to lefties, so I’ll at least note that and end with saying Soto/Rizzo are lefties that can destroy him if those tendencies come back.
Brewers will take on Luis Gil, who’s been a stud to start the year for this Yankees rotation (0.062 ISO / 0.254 wOBA / 34.5% K%). The walks are the only real concern for Gil, who has allowed at least three per game in every start. If he can get that under control, he could crush this evening. No interest in Brewers bats on such a large card.
Minnesota Twins -110 @ Los Angeles Angels -106
Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober (R) vs. Patrick Sandoval (L)
Temps in the mid 60s with winds blowing out to right at TWENTY mph – awesome bump for bats this evening. Patrick Sandoval is shut down to lefties but righties could give him some trouble, especially with that wind surge. Ryan Jeffers and Jose Miranda are the top bats that stick out for Minny.
Bailey Ober will return to the mound and reclaim his rotation spot after a stint on the IL. He is back to his old ways, giving up monster numbers to opposing righties (0.257 ISO / 0.364 wOBA / 41% hard contact). While I love the Braves, Orioles, and Rangers bats today, I laugh at the thought of Mike Trout’s matchup tonight. With an ISO of 0.402 and wOBA of 0.414 over the last month to right-handed pitching…I don’t think the spot could honestly get better. All Mike Trout props are in play and I will be making sure that we hit this in several formats today. Taylor Ward is also an awesome bat to mini-stack here.
Philadelphia Phillies -112 @ San Diego Padres -104
Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (R) vs. Joe Musgrove (R)
Temps are in the high 50s with winds blowing across the field from left to right at 10 mph – a very friendly pitchers park that should host a pitcher’s duel. Joe Musgrove has been good in some aspects and bad in others. He’s given up at least 3 ER in five of six starts this year and the walks have certainly been concerning, but he’s basically shut down lefties in a positive light. If you’re looking for righties here, play Trea Turner or Alec Bohm and don’t touch anything else.
Nola is the slight road favorite here and has been elite to righties – but we can’t say the same vs. lefties. The walk rate (9%) almost matches the strikeout rate (12%) while the damage given up to lefties is pretty egregious to look at. This Padres lineup unfortunately loses so much potential in this situation without Juan Soto…but we can still have interest in Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar, and Jackson Merrill. No interest in Nola (outside of large-field GPPs) unfortunately with those concerns.
Arizona Diamondbacks -132 @ Seattle Mariners +112
Game Total: 7.5 | Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen (R) vs. Emerson Hancock (R)
Emerson Hancock will draw the start for the Mariners and has put together two really promising outings in a row vs. Colorado and Chicago (Cubs) – going at least six innings in each and limiting damage to the tune of just three runs on eight hits. Hancock has performed much better to lefties but has struggled when facing righty-heavy situations. We’ll see what Arizona’s lineup looks like today, as they could specifically set up to go either direction. I have interest in Lourdes Gurriel and Ketel Marte…other than that it’s hard to get behind much else with a majority of the lineup struggling when facing right-handed pitching.
Zac Gallen is the decently-sized road favorite here and for good reason – this Mariners team swings and misses at a 28% clip to righties and just sucks vs. this handedness to start the year. Gallen’s early struggles (small at that) have been against lefties that don’t strike out. Unfortunately for Seattle, they only have one lefty that strikes out under 20% in Josh Rojas.
Pittsburgh Pirates +130 @ San Francisco Giants -154
Game Total: 8 | Starting Pitchers: Quinn Priester (R) vs. Kyle Harrison (L)
The final game on the card features a matchup between Pirates and Giants. Temps in the mid 50s with winds blowing out to straight-away center at 20 mph. This unfortunately is mitigated quite a bit by park design and is a very pitcher-friendly situation.
Pirates bats will take on southpaw Kyle Harrison, who’s been pretty average to start the year (and helped by the ballpark). He definitely has tendencies to give up hard contact to righties andd with the strikeouts down to begin the season (only 15%), we can certainly look at righties like Bryan Reynolds, Edward Olivares, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Conner Joe. Henry Davis and Alika Williams are lefty smashers with low sample sizes that could also perform well.
Giants get Quinn Priester, who has an elite ground ball rate of 78% on the season (in small sample, 53% in 2023). If he’s not getting guys to ground out on him, he’s giving up tremendous damage everywhere else, which was also similar in 2023. Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman, Michael Conforto, and Patrick Bailey are all positives in this matchup.
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