2024 MLB SZN Futures
The 2024 MLB season is here! Below are a few bullish leans on players heading into April. Obviously, injury and health concerns are factored into the decision making behind these selections. As always, daily MLB Picks from the team can be found here on the website.
Christian Yelich – OF – Milwaukee Brewers
- Yelich has cleared 17.5 Home Runs in five of the last eight seasons and finally seemed to show signs of his 2018-19 MVP Peak Seasons last summer. Arguably a top ten hitter in the MLB during the months of June and July, Yelich finished the 2023 season with the most amount of hits (153), doubles (34), Home Runs (19), RBI (78), batting average (.278), OBP (.370), SLG (.447), and OPS (.818) that he has recorded since the 2019 regular season.
- Christian has dealt with crippling back issues that have hindered several years of performance from 2021 to the start of the 2023 season, but it finally does feel like he has turned a corner, coming in fully healthy for the first time this decade.
- One of the main contributors to this over of Home Runs is how Yelich and the Brewers approached his aggressiveness last summer. In 2022, he drew 88 walks and had noticeably less isolated power as the count worked in his favor. Yelich was so focused on getting on base no matter what — something that got immensely better in 2023. The Brewers outfielder had an ISO of .348 on 2-0 counts, resulting in an OPS of 1.300, an elite clip and sign that instead of trying to draw walks or favorable situations, Yelich was trying to punish pitchers that challenged him instead of letting it slide.
- Yelich still hits in a batter-friendly Milwaukee ballpark and is now surrounded by more dangerous hitters (Willy Adames / William Contreras / Yeli will now be joined by right-handed power threat Rhys Hoskins), thus giving opposing pitchers less options to pitch around the veteran.
- Health will be an issue for any of these plays in this article, but the upward trajectory from 2021-2024 is something that is extremely hard to ignore here.
Pick ‘Em Selection: Yelich HIGHER than 17.5 Home Runs (Underdog Fantasy)
Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels
- While it’s never in our best interest to doubt one of the greatest players to ever put on a uniform in the history of the game, there’s a lot to be said on what could be another season full of question marks for the Angels and Mike Trout. Initially, it’s important to include the glaringly obvious fact that Trout has not been able to suit up in at least 120 games in a single season since 2019.
- In 13 seasons played, Mike has only been able to recorded 93 or more RBIs in four of those seasons. All of those seasons besides 2019 were prior to 2016 (which is now 6+ years ago).
- Lastly, the Shohei Ohtani effect will be an extremely important part of why this number won’t be achieved. When Trout was healthy w/ Ohtani in the Angels lineup, opposing pitchers had to plan accordingly, as Shohei’s presence gave immense security to how teams approached the top of the lineup. Now with Ohtani out of the lineup and an injury-plagued last several years for guys like Anthony Rendon/Taylor Ward, you really have to ask yourself the question: “Who’s Trout going to drive in besides himself?”
Pick ‘Em Selection: Trout LOWER than 92.5 RBIs (Underdog Fantasy)
Royce Lewis – 3B – Minnesota Twins
- The young budding superstar Royce Lewis put himself on the map in 2023, hitting an impressive 15 homers in just 58 games for the Twins (not to mention the insane postseason run he had). He enters the 2024 season with an expected full-time role at 3B.
- As long as the core group of Julien, Correa, Buxton, and Kepler stay healthy, Lewis will have plenty of opportunity to expand on his breakout season in the cleanup spot in the order.
- The division the Twins play in will also factor in here quite nicely as well. With the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox all rebuilding, we’ll be talking about Minnesota hitters being in incredible spots the majority of the season.
Pick ‘Em Selection: Lewis HIGHER than 26.5 Home Runs (Underdog Fantasy)
Luis Arraez – 2B – Miami Marlins
- It might be hard to see Luis Arraez topping his 2023 203-hit performance, but this 176.5 hits number still bakes in a rough 15% regression that I’m more than comfortable with grabbing a piece of. Let’s also not forget that he had 173 hits back in 2022 with the Twins to secure the first of two batting titles.
- Arraez had a strikeout rate of 5.5% and a swinging-strike rate of 3.1%, which is just absolutely nutty and easily a Top 1% of all Major League Hitter-type numbers. He puts the ball in play and finds a way to get on base every single time he’s up, even if the power numbers don’t match the flashy Freeman’s, Acuna’s, or Olson’s of the National League.
- While the Marlins lineup lost Soler, they do get Jazz Chisholm/Bryan De La Cruz back and a budding star in Jesus Sanchez looks to be healthy. Arraez will get his pitches to hit at the top of the order as he looks to secure a third batting title in as many years.
Pick ‘Em Selection: Arraez HIGHER than 176.5 Hits (Underdog Fantasy)
Esteury Ruiz – OF – Oakland Athletics
- Esteury Ruiz may be one of the most fascinating prospects to keep an eye on in 2024. While the A’s have nothing to play for here, Ruiz getting on base and running wild may be one of the more exciting parts of their season.
- He finished the 2023 season 67 for 80 on the basepaths, good for an 84% success rate. His Statcast Sprint Speed of 29.7 ft./sec is one of the best in the league and he should have no problem finding his groove again in 2024.
- One of the sweatiest parts of this play will be Ruiz’s ability to get on base. He’s not a good hitter nor even an average MLB hitter. His power numbers are basically nonexistent, so he’ll have to rely on his speed in order to get on base in most situations.
- Ruiz’s 35.9% chase rate and 11.8 Swinging-Strike rate are among the worst of any starting-caliber MLB player, but considering he plays for the A’s, his upside on a terrible team most likely trumps the growing pains that he will endure.
Pick ‘Em Selection: Ruiz HIGHER than 51.5 Stolen Bases (Underdog Fantasy)
-JB