Top 5 Players to Avoid in Best Ball Drafts

Jared Block

August 18, 2023

The 2023 drafting szn is upon us! As DFS players grind through the “dog days of MLB summer”, right now is the perfect time to get caught up on all things fantasy football. More specifically: Best Ball on Underdog Fantasy.

If you are interested in hearing players that we are bullish on, check out this article here.

RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND)

*RR Ranking – RB10 | Underdog Fantasy ADP – 23.5

Even before the contract issues, expecting the world of Jonathan Taylor on this new-era Colts team seemed a little bit too good to be true. Here we are in the middle of August and JT is still being drafted ahead of Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, and even Derrick Henry in some places.

Indianapolis drafted a mobile QB with a huge frame (Richardson 6’4″, 250 lbs) indicating the higher likelihood of vulturing TDs from JT
Offense was bottom 20% in the NFL in most, if not all metrics in 2022, including bottom 20% in scoring
Colts secondary could be forced into starting two rookies due to league suspensions, implying IND will be faced with negative game scripts that hurt the running game
At Taylor’s current price, there are better fantasy running backs on teams that will win more games. I would consider buying the dip on this play if he fell to the RB range of Joe Mixon, Alexander Mattison, Aaron Jones but am extremely pessimistic he falls due to name recognition

RB: Breece Hall (NYJ)

*RR Ranking – RB18 | Underdog Fantasy ADP – 35.8

RotoRadar currently has Breece Hall 18 picks behind his Underdog average draft position in Best Ball contests.

Coming off injury is only the beginning of this take, but needs to be included as a preliminary factor
While the Jets offense is on the come up, let’s remember that they host the Bills, Patriots, Chiefs, and Eagles while traveling to play the Cowboys, Broncos, and Giants in the first 7 weeks of the season (7th-hardest strength of schedule)
Dalvin Cook, most likely recruited by Aaron Rodgers (paycut factors), will have a very high probability of being the RB1 as Hall is eased in to this new offense coming off the injury
In the event that Breece becomes the RB1 in this system over the course of the year, there will always be vulturing situations looming with Cook involved, as well as chemistry of Rodgers with his receiving core (new and old) of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Mecole Hardman
Hall is currently being drafted ahead of Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, and Joe Mixon, all players I would gladly rather take a gamble on

RB: D’Andre Swift (PHI)

*RR Ranking – RB26 | Underdog Fantasy ADP – 80.9

A few months back, even I have to admit that I was pretty bullish on Swift moving on from his Lions tenure that was filled with injury and never really seeing the success and hype that he came into the league with. Fast forward to August and a few preseason games under our belts and things paint a new picture:

Not only does it seem like the Eagles are giving more shares of camp workload to newcomer Rashaad Penny, there are reports swirling from beat reporters stating that Kenneth Gainwell is actually making a strong case to be RB1. Gainwell out-snapped and outplayed now Panthers RB Miles Sanders in Philly’s Super Bowl run last season. Swift could be seen as the change of pace back and could operate as far down as the RB3 in this group, completely tanking his fantasy value despite being on a fantastic offense
With all the Running Backs listed above, let’s not forget that Jalen Hurts rushed for 13 TDs in 2022, accounting for over a third of the 32 total rushing TDs last season
At Swift’s current price, you need him to be a strong RB2/flex option in most drafts. When comparing his role to guys in this range (Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Javonte Williams, James Cook), there are many cases to be made that Swift is no where near this tier of fantasy play given the suspicions above

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)

*RR Ranking – WR22 | Underdog Fantasy ADP – 47.3

By this time of year most fantasy footballers know the fallout of the DeAndre Hopkins trade. This take isn’t going to be contrarian, but it still can help you win some home leagues and potentially some lower stakes contests.

While Hopkins was extremely effective in 2022 after serving his suspension, he was playing for an Arizona Cardinals team that was ALWAYS trailing or in a shootout, moving to Tennessee will be a polar opposite in terms of the way and style those two teams play
Hopkins will not be the focal point of the offense as a whole. Sure, he’ll be the de facto WR1 and there’s nothing wrong with that, but this Titans offense will still revolve around the heartbeat of Derrick Henry
We’re not disputing Hopkins’ talent or ability to thrive in an offense like this, but there’s only so much fantasy goodness to go around when Henry gets 25 touches a game and Tennessee tries to win by wearing the clock down. Hopkins will have spike weeks, so if you’re able to get to him at an ADP greater than 50, that’s where the value is going to be

TE: Evan Engram (JAX)

*RR Ranking – TE8 | Underdog Fantasy ADP – 95.2

As far as analysts go on the RR team, I am probably the most bullish on Evan Engram as a player after his time as a New York Giant. However, I have to draw the line somewhere and unfortunately it comes down to fading Engram as a fantasy option in 2023.

Engram’s 2022 season, while phenomenal, will be extremely hard to replicate with the addition of a 25% target share receiver in Calvin Ridley
While Trevor Lawrence may take another ascending step into an upper echelon QB in the NFL, he’ll have the option to throw to Ridley (22-25% share), Christian Kirk (24.6% target share in 2022), Zay Jones (23% target share in 2022) and even Travis Etienne as well
At Engram’s current price, I would much rather take a strong position on WR Elijah Moore (CLE) who now has an elevated target share opportunity with Deshaun Watson