Hey everyone, my name is Anthony, also known as LinkDFS! I have received a lot of questions regarding my CSGO projections that I post on Twitter and in the RotoRadar discord — so I have decided to write an article explaining the proper way to view the model!
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HOW TO READ THE MODEL:
HEADER DEFINITIONS
- Player – The name of the person in-game
- TM – The team that the player is on
- Odds – The sportsbook odds of the players team for the matchup
- K Line – The line that the players kill line is on the prop book
- HS Line – The line that the players headshot line is on the prop book
- K Proj – The kill projection for the player
- Diff – The difference between the line set by the prop book and the projection from the model
- HS Proj – The headshot projection for the player
- Diff – The difference between the line set by the prop book and the projection from the model
Examples
- GruBy has a +3.53 diff for his K Proj which means he’s projected to get 3.53 more kills than what his K Line is set to. So he’d be an over play.
- MUTiRiS has a -2.59 diff for his K Proj which means he’s projected to get 2.59 fewer kills than what his K Line is set to. So he’d be an under play.
- Players that I like to target are ones with a +/- of 3. On smaller slates, with can go down to a +/- of 2 or 1.
Additional Info
- The model should be used as a strong starting point, not convictions. Personally, I use the model to find the largest differences then research those specific plays.
- Players that are highlighted in yellow means that their sample size is volatile.
GAMESTACKS
- Correlation is the name of the game here. For game stacks, I like to have 4+ players from the same game. Sometimes 3 is ok if there’s enough value.
- Game stacks have a bit different parameters compared to picking plays from any game. What I l like to do is find a game that has four positive differences of 1 or more from the model…OR a game that has four negative differences of 1 or more from the model.
- Why? Let’s take the UNG/NEM series from the model as an example. All the players have a positive difference of at least 1. If the game has extended rounds or overtime, all the players benefit from the extra rounds.
- It is preferred to not stack overs and unders from the same game together as they negatively correlate with each other. With an over, you are rooting for a competitive series with a long of rounds. With an under, you are rooting for a non-competitive series that has blowouts.
WHERE CAN I WATCH THE GAMES?
WATCH LIVE
- The game is available to view on Twitch. The stream varies, but if you go under the CSGO category, you’ll be able to look through the CSGO streams. The games are typically in the title of the stream.
BOX SCORES
- The best place to go for box scores is without a doubt HLTV.org. Under the matches category, you can select the match you are looking for. Once there, there’s a live kill feed along with them updating the full box score shortly after the conclusion of each game.
- If you’re looking for how to find the headshots for a specific player, check out this tweet.
HAVE QUESTIONS?
