Inside this article, you’ll find a breakdown of some of the best NRFI (No Runs First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning) plays of the day with high-level analysis to back it up. If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on Twitter or Discord. Below here I’ll have a list of terms that I might use in a breakdown and the definitions for that term as well. After the breakdowns, I will also have where you can currently play this NRFI or YRFI. remember to check on the sites throughout the day because they can get posted on the sites after I post.
- NRFI record: The amount of times the NRFI has hit for a pitcher or a team. For example, if the Cubs have an NRFI record of 50-10, that means the NRFI has won in 50 of their games and has lost in 10 of their games.
- wRC+: If you listen to the podcast, you know this is my favorite stat. It is a stat that takes out all of the external factors (ballpark factor, weather, etc) and tells you how well a team is hitting on a scale. 100 wRC+ is the league average. Anything below that is below league average. If a team has a 76 wRC+, they are 24% worse than the league average.
- Red highlight or green header: Red means this play is an NRFI, green means this play is a YRFI.
- RHP or LHP – Right handed pitcher or left handed pitcher
Top plays (38-23)
Twins vs Mets
We are going back to the well today as the Mets continue to struggle in bunches in the 1st inning. But first, we cover the Twins who face off against Luis Severino. Sevy has become somewhat of a 1st inning ace this season. His current NRFI record sits at 18-2 this season which is really good. The Twins have been a below-average team against right-handed pitchers in the 1st inning, their NRFI record sits at 12-3 over the last 30 days against righties. Overall, we are going to rely on Sevy to continue to work his magic as a 1st inning ace that he has found this season.
It is not like Pablo Lopez is a 1st inning ace by any means. His NRFI record sits at 14-7 (though it has improved, considering it was 10-7 at the beginning of the month). But as I mentioned at the beginning of this write-up, this all boils down to the Mets still being lost at the plate in the 1st inning. They have still been held scoreless against right-handed pitchers in the 1st inning over the last month (18 games worth of data). I see no reason why that would change today.
Plays: Underdog and Sportsbooks (-145)
Dodgers vs Padres
Cease will get his chance to face off against the Dodgers, who might be one of the best 1st inning teams in the league right now. They have scored in the 1st inning in 9 out of their last 17 games against right-handed pitchers. Cease’s NRFI record is abysmal at 13-9. He will also have to face off against Ohtani, who has seen him well in the past (2 HRs in 11 ABs). I think the Dodgers continue their 1st inning dominance against Cease.
Kershaw is going to be the pitcher on the other side as he gets his chance to take on the Padres. The Padres have been better over the last month against left-handed starters rather than right-handed starters in the 1st inning. Kershaw is still getting warmed up to starting in the MLB again
Plays: Underdog (1.1x) and Sportsbooks (+110)
Cubs vs Reds
The Cubs get a chance to face off against Nick Lodolo, who has not been anything special in the 1st inning. But what is more notable is that the Cubs have been bad against lefties in the 1st inning. On the season they have only scored 5 times out of the 17 times they have faced a lefty in the 1st inning. Lodolo’s NRFI record is only 10-6 but he has some good advanced statistics (below 3 xFIP, K rate above 30%).
The Reds get to face off against Kyle Hendricks who has been a NRFI ace this season. His NRFI record is up to 12-2 this season and 3-1 over the past month. The Reds have been bad against righty pitching in the 1st inning, only scoring in 4 out of their last 15 1st innings against righties over the last 30 days. Their wRC+ over the last 30 days is down at 89 against righty pitching and that is enough for me to buy in.
Plays: PrizePIcks, Underdog (1.05x) and Sportsbooks (-125)