Week 18 of the NFL season is here! There are TONS of player incentives, record milestones, and narratives galore to bet on from multiple angles. With the pick’em markets growing larger and larger each month, it’s no surprise that there’s a ton of interest in this niche week of NFL football to bet on. That being said, PLEASE DO NOT TAKE THIS ARTICLE AS GOSPEL. While these contract incentives and milestones exist, players will obviously try to do their best given their team’s circumstances but these are not must plays whatsoever. There are plenty of ways to attack the last week of the regular season and we will be here through the entire postseason run, so please make sure to do your due diligence and bet on games where things actually matter.
For a full breakdown of the Week 18 NFL card, please refer to the Team Motivation article at this link.
NFL Player Statistical Milestones
The following players can realistically reach 1,000 rushing yards:
Alvin Kamara (NO) – 50 away
Chase Brown (CIN) – 10 away
D’Andre Swift (CHI) – 106 away
James Cook (BUF) – 19 away
Jayden Daniels (WAS) – 136 away
JK Dobbins (LAC) – 158 away
Joe Mixon (HOU) – 7 away
Lamar Jackson (BAL) – 148 away
The following players can realistically reach 1,000 receiving yards:
Calvin Ridley (TEN) – 59 away
Courtland Sutton (DEN) – 17 away
Darnell Mooney (ATL) – 8 away
Davante Adams (NYJ) – 25 away
DK Metcalf (SEA) – 61 away
DJ Moore (CHI) – 120 away
George Pickens (PIT) – 100 away
Jameson Williams (DET) – 33 away
Jakobi Meyers (LV) – 96 away
Jauan Jennings (SF) – 77 away
Jordan Addison (MIN) – 125 away
Mike Evans (TB) – 85 away
Nico Collins (HOU) – 32 away
Puka Nacua (LAR) – 10 away
Tee Higgins (CIN) – 142 away
Tyreek Hill (MIA) – 61 away
The following players can realistically reach 100 receptions:
Garrett WIlson (NYJ) – 3 away
Drake London (ATL) – 10 away
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) – 4 away
Travis Kelce (KC) – 3 away (most likely taken out right after this)
The following players can realistically reach 4,000 passing yards:
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) – 377 away (now has a potential “Last Game Ever” narrative)
CJ Stroud (HOU) – 323 away
Josh Allen (BUF) – 269 away
Lamar Jackson (BAL) – 5 away
Matthew Stafford (LAR) – 238 away (most likely out)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – 72 away (most likely out)
Additional milestones in play:
- Saquon Barkley is 101 rushing yards away from Eric Dickerson’s single-season record. Unfortunately, the Eagles have chosen to sit him in Week 18 per their latest update. Barkley will finish the year at 2,005 yards on the ground.
- Malik Nabers (104) and Brock Bowers (108) both have over 100 receptions on the year. Bowers is the current record holder for this rookie statistic, but Nabers can pass Puka Nacua’s 106-reception record this weekend.
- Lamar Jackson is just 5 yards away from 4,000 passing yards on the year. He can also set the single-season Ravens record for passing yards with a 363+ yard performance. They are in a must-win game with one smashing performance away from another Lamar MVP.
- In what could be his final NFL game ever, Aaron Rodgers needs just one more passing touchdown to hit the 500 TD mark to make history. Obviously, Davante Adams should be the favorite to catch that score.
- Josh Allen needs one rushing score to set the career rushing touchdown record in Buffalo. There’s a very strong chance he scores early and then gets taken out of the game, as the Bills have nothing to play for here.
- Sam Darnold can set the single-season passing touchdown record for Minnesota with 5 more passing scores this weekend. While this is a lofty goal, Sunday Night Football’s NFC North matchup is not only a must win, but it’s a 56.5 Vegas Game Total as well.
- Baker Mayfield is all over this list this weekend. Not only are the Bucs in a must-win scenario, but he needs five more passing scores to set the single-season record that Tom Brady hit a few years ago. Mayfield to Evans will be the most popular “incentives” duo in Week 18 and have the motivation to back them.
Week 18 Player Contract Incentives
Player Contract Incentives (Offense)
- Alexander Mattison (LV) needs 8 more catches to potentially earn a $125,000 bonus. Mattison also needs 67+ scrimmage yards to earn an additional $250,000.
- Antonio Gibson (NE) needs 117 total yards to potentially earn a $500,000 bonus.
- Austin Hooper (NE) needs 4 more receptions to potentially earn a $125,000 bonus and 9+ receptions to potentially earn an additional $125,000.
- Cedrick Wilson (NO) needs 161 more receiving yards to potentially earn a $125,000 bonus.
- Courtland Sutton (DEN) needs 82 receiving yards to potentially earn a $500,000 bonus – one of the highest on this card. He could also earn another $500,000 if he scores three more touchdowns this season. Denver needs to win in order to make the playoffs this weekend.
- Darius Slayton (NYG) needs 198 receiving yards to potentially earn a $100,000 bonus. With Nabers also chasing a record, this one feels lofty.
- Dawson Knox (BUF) needs 8+ receptions for $100,000, 89 receiving yards for another $100,000, and 3 touchdowns for another $100,000. The Bills have nothing to play for in Week 18.
- DeAndre Hopkins (KC) needs one touchdown for $500,000, 9 more receptions for $250,000, and 140 receiving yards to earn another $250,000. KC is resting starters in Week 18, but they may give D-Hop a look at an early touchdown.
- Deebo Samuel (SF) needs two rushing scores to potentially earn a $150,000 bonus – he’s only had one on the year so far and the Niners are now eliminated.
- Geno Smith (SEA) needs just 185 passing yards to potentially earn a $2M bonus. Seattle has nothing to play for, but neither do the Rams (resting their starters).
- JK Dobbins (LAC) needs 58 rushing yards to potentially earn a $150,000 bonus.
- Joe Mixon (HOU) needs 107 rushing yards for a potential to earn $250,000. With their playoff spot clinched and the team limping into the playoffs, we’ll see if they lighten Mixon’s workload and look ahead to the postseason.
- Justice Hill (BAL) needs 8 receptions for a potential $250,000 bonus and 125 rushing yards for another $250,000.
- Kalif Raymond (DET) needs two scores to potentially earn a $50,000 bonus. He is currently practicing and could be used in 4-WR sets in the highest game total on the Week 18 card.
- Kyler Murray (ARI) needs 1 rushing touchdown and 50 rushing yards for a $750,000 bonus
- Mack Hollins (BUF) needs two receptions to potentially earn $50,000. .He’s got a chance to play with some backups in the event Josh Allen leaves the game early.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) needs 11 receptions to earn $250,000. He can also earn an additional $250,000 if he records 172 more receiving yards.
- Mike Gesicki (CIN) needs three receiving yards to potentially earn a $250,000 bonus. He also needs two touchdowns to earn an additional $125,000. The Bengals are in a must-win game on Saturday.
- Mike Evans (TB) needs 85 receiving yards and 5 receptions for a potential $3M bonus if he clears all of those markets. He can also keep his 1,000+ yard streak alive.
- Tony Pollard (TEN) needs 83 rushing yards to earn $250,000. He can also earn an additional $250,000 if he scores twice on the ground in Week 18. Given that Tyjae Spears is currently injured and Pollard’s offensive coordinator has stated he’s willing to get him there, we could see Pollard earn a bunch of money this weekend.
- Tyler Conklin (NYJ) needs just one reception to earn a potential $250,000.
- Zach Ertz’s (WAS) outlook this weekend is extremely interesting. Not only is Washington motivated to win and secure a higher playoff seed, but there are several ways to attack his markets. Ertz needs 9+ receptions for $250,000, 90+ receiving yards for $250,000, and two touchdowns to earn $250,000. A total of $750,000 is on the line here in a very positive outlook for the Commanders in Week 18.
Player Contract Incentives (Defense)
- Arden Key (TEN) needs 1.5 sacks for a $500,000 bonus.
- Blake Cashman (MIN) needs 0.5 sacks for a $250,000 bonus.
- Bud Dupree (LAC) needs 1+ sack for a $250,000 bonus.
- Calais Campbell (MIA) needs 1+ sack for a $300,000 bonus.
- Cody Barton (DEN) needs 1+ interceptions for a $250,000 bonus.
- Dante Fowler (WAS) needs 0.5 sacks to max out his potential $1.5M bonus (an additional $375,000).
- DaQuon Jones (BUF) needs 0.5 sacks for a $250,000 bonus.
- Dorance Armstrong (WAS) needs 1+ sack for a $250,000 bonus.
- Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA) needs 1.5+ sacks for a $500,000 bonus.
- Javon Kinlaw (NYJ) needs 0.5 sacks for a $250,000 bonus.
- Josh Sweat (PHI) needs 2 sacks for a potential $1M bonus.
- Kenneth Murray (TEN) needs 0.5 sacks for a $250,000 bonus.
- Kristian Fulton (LAC) needs 1+ interceptions for a $125,000 bonus
- Kyle Van Noy (BAL) needs 0.5 sacks for a $250,000 bonus.
- Linval Joseph (DAL) needs 1+ sack for a $100,000 bonus.
- Taron Johnson (BUF) needs 1+ INT for a $250,000 bonus.
- Tyquan Lewis (IND) needs 1.5+ sacks for a $100,000 bonus.
- Tyrel Dodson (MIA) needs 1+ sack for a $300,000 bonus.
- Von Miller (BUF) needs 1+ sack for a potential $1.5M bonus
- Za’Darius Smith (DET) needs 2 sacks for a $250,000 bonus.
- Zaven Collins (ARI) needs 1+ sack for a $300,000 bonus
Week 18 Team Motivation Article:
Let’s finish the regular season off in style!
-JB
