ABOVE IS AN EXAMPLE MODEL FROM THE 11/22/2023 NBA SLATE:
I have broken the model into 4 different sections of “Stats Allowed”
Points
Rebounds
Assist
3-Pointers Made
On the left side, it shows the Full Season data of each team.
On the right side, it shows a sample of data from the last 7 games for each team. This can be used to see how each team is trending defensively at each position.
AT THE TOP OF EACH SECTIONS, YOU WILL SEE A HEADER THAT HAS 6 DIFFERENT COLUMNS (TEAM, PG, SG, SF, PF, C)
TEAM – Teams abbreviation
PG – This column has the rankings of each teams stat allowed to the Point Guard position
SG – This column has the rankings of each teams stat allowed to the Shooting Guard position
SF – This column has the rankings of each teams stat allowed to the Small Forward position
PF – This column has the rankings of each teams stat allowed to the Power Forward position
C – This column has the rankings of each teams stat allowed to the Center position
WHAT EXACTLY DO ALL THESE NUMBER MEAN?
Every position is on a 1-30 scale.
The lower the number, the less of that specified stat the team allows to the position
An example of a good Under play is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 Points. At the time of this article, he is a Point Guard (PG) for the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC). If you look at the model, you’ll see CHI gives up the 1st least Points (PTS) vs. PGs both this season and over the Last 7 games.
An example of a good Over play is Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Points. At the time of this article, he’s a Center (C) for the Sacramento Kings (SAC). If you look at the model, you’ll see NOP gives up the 7th most Points (PTS) vs. Cs this season and 5th most Points (PTS) over the Last 7 games.
You could even look at taking Domantas Sabonis Over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA) considering NOP gives up the 7th most Points, 4th most Rebounds, and 8th most Assists vs. Cs.
The model should only be used as a guide to assist decision-making and should not be the sole piece of information used. I tend to use props.cash during my research process.
WHERE CAN I FIND THE POSITION FOR EACH PLAYER?
One thing to keep in mind for NBA positions is that the listed position doesn’t always tell the whole story.
For example, Devin Booker is listed as a Shooting Guard (SG) on the Phoenix Suns roster, but so far through the 2023-24 Season he has played 69% of his minutes at the Small Forward (SF) position
To find what position each player plays most of his minutes at, I use Basketball-Reference. I search for a specific player and scroll down to the Play-by-Play section and that will show you what percentage that player plays at each position.
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